Remember all those intriguing potential Super Regional matchups we envisioned when the NCAA revealed its baseball tournament bracket last week?
Welp, they never materialized.
Chase Burns is back in Winston-Salem preparing for the Major League Draft instead of back on the mound at Tennessee preparing to pitch against his old teammates. And Florida State will be facing another traditional basketball school, UConn, instead of Duke in a replay of their ACC Tournament championship game.
The Seminoles aren’t the only ACC team to draw an opponent that entered the postseason as the No. 3 seed in its regional. All but NC State, which travels to 7th overall seed Georgia, have drawn matchups few, if anyone could have predicted.
The remaining obstacles on the road to the College World Series in Omaha got a little less imposing for No. 3 North Carolina, No. 6 Clemson and No. 12 Virginia. The Tar Heels will take on West Virginia instead of Arizona. The Tigers host Florida instead of Oklahoma State. And the Cavaliers won’t just get to play Kansas State instead of Arkansas, they’ll get to do it at home instead of traveling to Fayetteville.
They’re matchups that all but guarantee the ACC an 18th consecutive year with at least 1 team in Omaha.
Then again, we also thought Wake Forest would be in Knoxville for the Burns reunion and ACC Tournament champion Duke was a lock to get to Tallahassee.
So stay tuned.
Here’s a look at how the super regional matchups break down and predictions on how they might turn out:
Virginia vs. Kansas State
Where: Disharoon Park, Charlottesville, Va.
You have to be good to get to Omaha 6 times since 2009, as the Cavaliers have under coach Brian O’Connor. But it doesn’t hurt to have a little bracket luck, either.
UVa got a lot of it when Arkansas, the No. 5 overall seed, was eliminated early from its regional over the weekend. That provided the 12-seeded Cavaliers with homefield advantage for the upcoming Super Regional round.
An added bonus is that the No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Region, Louisiana Tech, also failed to advance. That means No. 3 regional seed Kansas State is the only thing standing in UVa’s way from a 2nd straight College World Series appearance.
It’s a matchup that, at least on paper, looks as lopsided as the seedings suggest.
UVA is 44-15 and is in its 9th Super Regional in the past 15 seasons. The Cavaliers have 9 players batting .300 or better and rank 2nd nationally with a team average of .321. They are averaging 9.5 runs per game (5th nationally) and have hit 114 homers (12th). K-State (35-24) has only 3 hitters above the .300 mark, by contrast, and is hitting .273 as a team with only 66 home runs. This will be only the Wildcats’ 2nd Super Regional and first since 2013.
While the pitching matchups look a little more even, with team ERAs in the mid 5s for both, the Cavaliers’ staff got a boost in its regional-clinching victory against Mississippi State with the re-emergence of MLB prospect (and former quarterback) Jay Woolfolk to go with Friday night ace Evan Blanco and a deep bullpen.
FanDuel sportsbook has UVa at minus-230 to win the series. As long as the Hoos don’t get too co*cky, you have to like their chances.
Prediction: UVa in 2.
North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Where: Boshamer Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Another matchup between a team that started the season with realistic ambitions of getting to Omaha against an opponent that might just be happy to get this far. The Tar Heels are the No. 4 overall seed, making their 11th Super Regional appearance while the Mountaineers (36-22) have made it past the regional round for the first time in school history.
It’s an accomplishment for which WVU can be proud. But it wasn’t exactly a juggernaut facing top-flight national competition in the Tucson Region. The Mountaineers made it through without having to face top-seeded Arizona. Their 3 regional victories came against Dallas Baptist once and Grand Canyon twice.
UNC, by contrast, was taken to the limit by the defending national champion LSU before winning a 3rd-and-final matchup in an epic 10-inning battle. The Tar Heels feature one of the most complete players in the country in Vance Honeycutt and a deep pitching staff that ranks among the top 15 nationally with a 4.30 earned run average.
UNC (45-14) has the best odds among ACC teams to make it to Omaha at +800. As long as it isn’t burned out from the intense effort it took to survive its regional and it can contain projected top-10 pick JJ Weetherholt (.345/8 HRs/30 RBIs), this matchup should be over quickly.
Prediction: UNC in 2.
Florida State vs. UConn
Where: Dick Howser Stadium, Tallahassee, Fla.
The Seminoles are one of the most improved teams in the nation this season and will be heavily favored. But don’t sleep on the Huskies, Unlike Kansas State and West Virginia, UConn is no stranger to postseason baseball, having been to a school-record 6 straight NCAA Tournaments and 10 since 2010.
The Huskies also have a deep pitching staff that shut out Duke in last week’s regional opener, then knocked off host Oklahoma twice to advance as a 3 seed. While Friday night ace Garrett Coe (8-5, 4.22) might be at a disadvantage against FSU’s Jamie Arnold (11-3, 2.45), UConn could offset that edge the longer the series continues.
The Huskies will need to pitch well against Florida State (37-21) and an offense that is hitting 40 points higher (.314 to .274), has hit 29 more home runs (112-83) and scored 167 fewer runs (525-358). The Seminoles’ batting order is so deep and potent that they swept through their regional with ACC Player of the Year James Tibbs III going 0-for-9 with 4 strikeouts.
This will be FSU’s 18th Super Regional, the most all-time since the format was adopted in 1999. But it’s the Seminoles first since 2019.
Prediction: FSU in 3.
Clemson vs. Florida
Where: Doug Kingsmore Stadium, Clemson SC
This is a tricky one. While Clemson (44-14) finally got over the hump and won a regional for the first time since 2010. But it was hardly dominant in doing so. The Tigers needed a run in the 9th inning to walk off opening-round opponent High Point, then eked out another 1-run victory against Coastal Carolina in Game 2 before exploding for 8 runs in the 8th of a championship rematch with the Chanticleers.
With the exception of top hitter Cam Cannarella, Clemson’s offense has run hot and cold all season. Its .299 batting average ranks just 7th in the ACC and could become a problem if Florida is able to solve the Tigers’ strong pitching staff and turn games into shootouts like its 17-11 regional elimination victory against Nebraska on Sunday.
The Gators (32-28) were a controversial pick just to get into this year’s tournament because of an overall record barely over .500. But they were the CWS runner-up last year and have made it to the super regionals for the 10th time in the past 16 NCAA Tournaments. They’re led by 2-way star Jac Caglianone, a likely top-3 pick in the MLB Draft pick who leads the team in average (.407) and homers (31) also has its best ERA at 4.57.
This is a reason Clemson should win. But Florida is on one of those rolls and that makes it dangerous.
Prediction: Florida in 3.
NC State vs. Georgia
Where: Foley Field, Athens, Ga.
The Wolfpack have the longest odds among ACC teams to advance to the CWS at +2000, according to FanDuel sportsbook. That’s not necessarily a knock against State, the No. 10 national seed. But rather a statement on the quality of its opponent and the fact that the series will be played on the road.
Elliott Avent’s team won’t have the advantage of a raucous home crowd the veteran coach said was the best he’s seen in his 27 seasons in Raleigh to pull it through as it did in its regional. But then, the last time the Wolfpack got to Omaha, they did it by winning a Super Regional on the road against the No. 1 overall seed. And an SEC opponent, as well.
This Georgia team isn’t as imposing as that 2021 Arkansas club — but it has a singular star in Charlie Condon who is producing one of the most prolific seasons in college baseball. Georgia also is 32-5 at home this season, with a lineup anchored by SEC Player of the Year Condon, who leads the country in hitting (.445) and home runs (36) and could be the No. 1 overall player selected in the MLB Draft. It will be a test for a State rotation that’s gotten a boost from the return of a healthy Logan Whitaker and its young, lights-out bullpen.
State also has some firepower in the middle of its lineup with the trio of Alec Makarewicz, Garrett Pennington and Jacob Cozart. This will be the 2nd time these teams have been matched in a Super Regional. Georgia beat State 2-0 in Athens in 2008, the Bulldogs’ most recent Super Regional appearance.
Prediction: UGA in 3.
